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I’ve recently become rather interested in prediction markets, and the sorts of things people are willing to try and predict.

And while I have little interest in trading on them myself, I have started a YouTube channel commenting on some of the stranger ones.

One of them I found today is “What places will Trump mention in his State of the Union address?” (found on Kalshi here)

Given its a geographic prediction, I thought I’d look at the top 11 countries people think will be mentioned, with a map for each:

11. Japan (68%)

10. India (69%)

9. Gaza (75%)

8. Canada (79%)

7. Israel (82%)

6. Mexico (85%)

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5. Ukraine (86%)

4. Russia (89%)

3. Venezuela (92%)

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2. Iran (94%)

1. China (97%)

Oh and Little Saint James (aka Epstein Island) only has a 3% chance.

For more Brilliant Maps, you can also follow me here:

For Bad AI Maps see:

And for History Meme see:

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